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'<p>
<span style="color: rgb(62, 62, 62); font-family: 微軟雅黑, 黑體, Arial; font-size: 14px;">專業咖啡師交流 請關注咖啡工房(微信公衆號cafe_style )</span><br />
<br />
<span style="font-size:18px;">對每天都要去星巴克、COSTA這樣的咖啡連鎖品牌店轉上一圈的都市“小白們”來說,他們往往會對自己常喝的各種杯型的拿鐵、摩卡、卡布奇諾的價格非常關注。殊不知,儘管這一杯杯咖啡的價格不經常變化,但用來製作這些咖啡的原材料咖啡豆的價格今年以來已經上漲了相當大的比例,一個重要原因則是“咖啡葉鏽病”。</span></p>
<p>
<span style="font-size:18px;">據墨西哥農業科學家Carlos Guadarrama等人的估算,世界上有一半的咖啡都將在2050年前絕種,罪魁禍首正是“咖啡葉鏽病”,這是一種在逐漸變暖的氣候中滋生的疾病,它正在墨西哥和中美洲蔓延,得病的咖啡植株會失去養料,最終枯黃而死,而世界主要咖啡品種,阿拉比卡咖啡豆正好易於感染此病,該品種的咖啡豆產量通常佔總產量的60%左右。</span></p>
<p>
<span style="font-size:18px;">咖啡一直是墨西哥Guadalupe地區主要經濟作物,但去年是過去20年裏,咖啡豆收成最差的一年,幾乎全部的咖啡植株都感染葉鏽病而死。2014年,葉鏽病摧毀了墨西哥和中美洲70%的咖啡產能,而直到了去年,當地的總產量只有2013年總產量的10%左右。</span></p>
<p>
<span style="font-size:18px;">產能的減少,直接導致了價格的上漲。中國商務部駐馬達加斯加使館經商處的消息稱,近來馬達加斯加本地市場的咖啡豆價格翻了兩倍,一個月前還是8000-8500阿里亞里/公斤(約合2.7美元),現在已經達到了21000-22000阿里亞里/公斤(約合6.5美元)。批發和零售的價格相差無幾,尚沒有關於漲價的明確解釋。不僅價格上漲,零售櫃檯上的咖啡豆數量也開始減少了,只有批發商尚有存貨。這些情況對小飯店和流動攤販的咖啡價格產生了影響,目前一杯咖啡的價格不低於300阿里亞里(約合0.1美元)。</span></p>
<p>
<span style="font-size:18px;">這一情況也出現在咖啡出口大國肯尼亞。中國商務部網站的信息顯示,2016年,肯尼亞咖啡出口額增加7.8%至2.06億美元,其中85%是通過內羅畢咖啡交易中心(NCE)拍賣,其他直接售往海外。根據NCE的數據,肯尼亞今年2月份咖啡銷售額同比增加了63%至9097萬美元,銷售量增加了30%至16.9噸,同時每袋50KG的咖啡豆售價同比增加25.61%至268美元,主要由於很多買家積極囤貨以備後期銷售。</span></p>
<p>
<span style="font-size:18px;">總是有人歡喜有人憂。受病蟲害以及乾旱的影響,全球最大的咖啡產量大國曆史上第一次從競爭對手那裏進口相當數量的咖啡,以彌補市場需求的空缺。根當地媒體報道,2016年巴西聖埃斯皮裏圖州羅布斯塔咖啡產量下降799萬袋,下降幅度高達30%。受供應短缺影響,巴西速溶咖啡價格在過去12月中上漲了14.9%,咖啡粉的價格同期上漲高達20%。因此,巴西政府已允許進口羅布斯塔咖啡,進口來源地主要是越南。</span></p>
<p>
<span style="font-size:18px;">不過,第一財經記者也注意,這一產能的變化似乎沒有立即反映在期貨市場的表現上。截至6月17日,全球重要的兩大咖啡期貨品種,阿拉比卡4/5咖啡期貨價格和美國C型咖啡期貨價格均跌至今年來新低。從今年年初到現在,美國C型咖啡豆156.7美元跌至目前的123.9美元,年跌幅達11.18%;阿拉比卡4/5咖啡期貨價格從年初最高的186.25美元跌至目前的144.7美元,年跌幅達7.65%。</span></p>
<p>
<span style="font-size:18px;">相關行業分析師認爲,雖然受病蟲害、天氣等因素的影響,會使得咖啡豆價格出現“量減價升”的情況,但之前幾年,由於咖啡豆原本就存在產能過剩的原因,使得產量的變化尚未反映到咖啡期貨的價格上。</span></p>
<p>
<span style="font-size:18px;"><img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/170621/3-1F621121Q1148.png" style="height: 370px; width: 800px;" /></span></p>
<p>
<span style="font-size:18px;"><img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/170621/3-1F621121I4426.png" style="height: 365px; width: 800px;" /></span></p>
<p>
<span style="font-size:18px;">不過,本報記者也注意到,受益咖啡期貨價格的下跌,以咖啡爲原材料的咖啡加工企業卻賺得鉢盆滿滿。根據星巴克最新發布的財報顯示,公司2017財年上半年盈利14.05億美元,同比增長11.27%。公司2017財年上半年營業收入110.27億美元,同比增長6.37%。股價也因此受益,今年以來,星巴克(SBUX.O)股價累計上漲9.6%,報60.14美元。</span></p>
<p>
<span style="font-size:18px;">同樣受益的咖啡商還有雀巢(Nestle SA),雀巢今年以來股價連續上漲,截至5月16日收盤,報83.45瑞郎,半年漲幅高達15.2%。</span></p>
<p>
<span style="font-size:18px;"><img alt="" src="/uploads/allimg/170621/3-1F621121JEW.png" style="height: 515px; width: 800px;" /></span></p>
<p>
<span style="font-size:18px;">分析指出,國際咖啡豆價格未來數年內會以每年20%左右的幅度增長。這些咖啡加工企業顯然已經開始爲自然氣候、病蟲害等不利因素擔憂,並開始着手化解。此前,星巴克(中國)就在北京宣佈首款產自中國的單一產區咖啡豆入駐中國門店,這也是星巴克2012年在雲南普洱市自建的咖啡農場投產後的首度“成果展示”,自然也是爲滿足不斷增加的中國市場的需求。雀巢也曾表示,從現在到2020年,雀巢將投入5億瑞士法郎(約合人民幣33.6億元),對咖啡供應鏈中原料、生產製造和產品消費各環節創造共享價值。</span></p>
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'pid' => '2',
'pids' => '0,1,2',
'name' => '外國咖啡',
'dirname' => 'zixun/waiguokafeixinxi',
'pdirname' => 'kafeixinwen/zixun/',
'child' => 0,
'childids' => 320,
'thumb' => '',
'show' => '1',
'setting' =>
array (
'edit' => 1,
'disabled' => 0,
'getchild' => 1,
'linkurl' => '',
'urlrule' => 3,
'seo' =>
array (
'list_title' => '[第{page}頁{join}]{catpname}{join}{modname}{join}{SITE_NAME}',
'list_keywords' => '',
'list_description' => '',
),
'template' =>
array (
'pagesize' => 20,
'mpagesize' => 20,
'page' => 'page.html',
'list' => 'list.html',
'category' => 'category.html',
'search' => 'search.html',
'show' => 'show.html',
),
'cat_field' => '',
'module_field' => '',
'html' => 0,
),
'displayorder' => '0',
'acount' => '13',
'namerule' => '{typedir}/{Y}/{M}{D}/{aid}.html',
'namerule2' => '{typedir}/list_{tid}_{page}.html',
'mid' => 'article',
'pcatpost' => 1,
'topid' => '1',
'domain' => '',
'catids' =>
array (
0 => '320',
),
'is_post' => 1,
'mobile_domain' => '',
'tid' => 1,
'url' => 'https://gafei.com/list-zixun/waiguokafeixinxi.html',
'total' => 13,
'field' =>
array (
),
),
323 =>
array (
'id' => '323',
'pid' => '2',
'pids' => '0,1,2',
'name' => '7月資訊',
'dirname' => '7yuezixun',
'pdirname' => 'kafeixinwen/zixun/',
'child' => 0,
'childids' => 323,
'thumb' => '',
'show' => '1',
'setting' =>
array (
'edit' => 1,
'disabled' => 0,
'getchild' => 1,
'linkurl' => '',
'urlrule' => 3,
'seo' =>
array (
'list_title' => '[第{page}頁{join}]{catpname}{join}{modname}{join}{SITE_NAME}',
'list_keywords' => '',
'list_description' => '',
),
'template' =>
array (
'pagesize' => 20,
'mpagesize' => 20,
'page' => 'page.html',
'list' => 'list.html',
'category' => 'category.html',
'search' => 'search.html',
'show' => 'show.html',
),
'cat_field' => '',
'module_field' => '',
'html' => 0,
),
'displayorder' => '0',
'acount' => '1',
'namerule' => '{typedir}{Y}{M}{D}{aid}.html',
'namerule2' => '{typedir}/list_{tid}_{page}.html',
'mid' => 'article',
'pcatpost' => 1,
'topid' => '1',
'domain' => '',
'catids' =>
array (
0 => '323',
),
'is_post' => 1,
'mobile_domain' => '',
'tid' => 1,
'url' => 'https://gafei.com/list-7yuezixun.html',
'total' => 1,
'field' =>
array (
),
),
) |
urlrule |
'/views-104937-[page].html' |
fix_html_now_url |
'' |
my_web_url |
'https://coffeetec.gafei.com/views-104937' |
get |
array (
's' => 'article',
'c' => 'show',
'id' => '104937',
'm' => 'index',
) |